Rolling over for more than 53 draws, the Irish lottery has recently achieved the longest streak it’s ever seen. Last won on 5th June, the current state of the lottery is considered extremely statistically unlikely. But according to the Irish National lottery commission, there’s not much that can be done, at least not yet. So, where does the lottery currently sit, how has this happened, and what will it change in the long term?
The Prize on Offer
As of mid-December, 2021, the total prize for the Irish lottery has reached its maximum of €19 million. This cap was achieved in September, and can’t currently be changed due to rules on modifying games in progress. While it might seem like this is an oversight, capping a payout at €19 million more demonstrates statistical probability than anything else.
The odds of winning the Irish Lotto jackpot sit at one in 10.7 million. This illustrates the six-number jackpot, with lower prizes like the five number payout offering the much greater odds of one in 1.8 million. Of course, probability is not definite, as the last six months in the first division have shown. In 2020, the Irish Lottery boasted 1.3 million weekly players. While the numbers aren’t available yet for 2021, the higher jackpot means there are likely more players invested than ever before.
Also contributing to the higher rate of involvement with the Irish Lottery over the last few years is the increasing involvement of smart devices. About 19 out of every 20 Irish people own smartphones, and these systems have significantly opened up access to a wide range of betting systems. With the ability to purchase tickets easily online and not have to make a trip down to the shops, such convenience is undeniable, playing an important part in modern lottery success.
Possible Future Solutions
As stated by insiders in the Irish Lottery, ideas are being passed around to take into account addressing this problem of hitting the prize cap if it occurs again. One such idea could revolve around raising or even eliminating the upper cap on winnings. Though this is unlikely to raise the maximum prize to US records of more than $1.5 billion, it would make the eventual winners even more satisfied with a higher prize.
It could also be possible to take the excess money above the cap and invest it into higher prizes for lower divisions. This would still generate increased engagement, in a way that would appeal to both players and Irish Lotto. Finally, another floated suggestion has been to eliminate higher balls from the lottery when at this cap. This would increase the odds of winning but could come with the caveat of increasing the chances of a shared jackpot.
No matter which way you slice it, it looks like the Irish Lottery is going to experience restructuring of some kind following this event. Though created by an unusual situation, this outcome looks to be a positive one for players, in offering higher possibilities of winning. As for how long the current streak could go for, that much looks to be up to Lady Luck.
